Clinton predicted to beat Trump…because of economics

It’s probably right but I don’t think for the reason they think.

The reason a Democrat will win isn’t about polling or personalities, it’s about economics, says Moody’s. The economy is the top issue in just about every election. When the economy is doing well, the party currently in office usually wins again. When the economy is tanking, Americans vote for change.

Source: Clinton predicted to beat Trump…because of economics | Q13 FOX News

The economy is doing very well but the American middle class isn’t. It doesn’t matter how well our economy is doing in reality when the people can be convinced that it is awful.

Sacrificial Lamb?

She must have seen it coming. Bernie Sanders has declared war on Debbie Wasserman Schultz by backing her opponent in her congressional race and declaring that if he is declared the Democratic candidate for president he will strip DWS of her chairmanship.

It seems like he has convinced some establishment Democrats that removing her chairmanship is the only move to be made for party unity.

“There have been a lot of meetings over the past 48 hours about what color plate do we deliver Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s head on,” said one pro-Clinton Democratic senator.

Source: Dems discuss dropping Wasserman Schultz | TheHill

Surely she would know that her openly antagonistic actions toward the Sanders campaign would produce an enormous amount of blowback that would be all over her. Surely she would understand that the huge support Sanders was getting would translate into political klout.

One can only surmise that she is now the sacrificial lamb.

Hillary Clinton Thinks Successful Business People Could Make a Suitable Running Mate

Sec. Clinton has announced that she will include those outside of politics for a running mate.

In choosing a running mate, Mrs. Clinton said she would seek, above all, someone prepared to be president and “someone you can work with — someone you believe will be a good partner.”

Source: Hillary Clinton Warns Against Treating Donald Trump as ‘Normal’ Candidate – The New York Times

Someone like Lloyd Blankfein, perhaps?

Sanders isn’t a Democrat; What’s in Party Unity for him?

There is absolutely no reason for Sanders to sacrifice his goals to Democratic party unity, he isn’t a Democrat. I think he knew coming into this campaign that he would either become president or he would retire.

Leading Democrats are growing increasingly vocal in their concerns about the White House hopeful’s continued candidacy, and whether he and his legions of enthusiastic supporters ultimately will unite behind Hillary Clinton in a general election against Donald Trump.   For his part, Sanders has sharpened his critique of the party. He says it would be “sad and tragic” if Democrats don’t stop relying on big money, and he is assailing Clinton for her dependence on wealthy donors.

Source: Some fear Sanders won’t exit gracefully

So, what do they have to negotiate with? This is the only way they are going to have their peaceful convention, by coming to terms with Sanders’ terms. That’s the only way they are going to be able to keep the Sanders supporters in their corner is through negotiation. Loyalty will not come into play here.

The End of Bad Paying Jobs

For years my job was automating manufacturing systems. During that time I saw very few people lose their jobs because of projects I was involved in but I saw a lot of people reassigned and retrained. Most of them saw an increase in pay, the rest of them retired. None of them were replaced and attrition dropped the payroll of the site.

These jobs that faded away were decent paying manufacturing jobs but they were some of the most tedious jobs I’ve ever witnessed. Automating those jobs was an expensive investment but one that paid for itself within five years.

In high school I worked in a McDonald’s. I can not think of a more tedious job than the one I held there. And even though it was a minimum wage job it was stressful. I would have nightmares about working in that store that was the result of the stress.

Automation has also been arriving on the scene at McDonald’s but not to the extent it has in manufacturing. I’ve seen stores go from 15+ employees on a shift down to 5 over the years. However, this hasn’t seemed to affect the employees on the counter much.

It looks like that is changing:

McDonald’s (MCD) has been testing self-service kiosks. But Wendy’s, which has been vocal about embracing labor-saving technology, is launching the biggest potential expansion.

Wendy’s Penegor said company-operated stores, only about 10% of the total, are seeing wage inflation of 5% to 6%, driven both by the minimum wage and some by the need to offer a competitive wage “to access good labor.”

Source: Wendy’s Serves Up Kiosks As Wages Rise, Hits Fast-Food Group | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis – IBD

A 33% increase in labor costs suddenly gives an incentive to automate that wasn’t there before.

The problem I see here is that there is not many places to reassign a fast food worker to and not much of a reason to retrain them. And while these are crappy jobs they are jobs. You can’t raise a family on what they pay but when they were part-time jobs for teenagers who were being supported by parents they were great places to get work experience. Now that will be gone and I’m not sure where teenagers will turn to get that experience.

There is a very good reason for Sanders to remain in the race until the end.

I like this article. It does a very good job of explaining the Super-delegates purpose and why they should not be counted until the convention. Their vote is suppose to be fluid. It also explains the scenarios by which it would make sense for the Super-delegates to get on the Sanders’ bandwagon.

What makes 2016 very different from 2008 is that the following items are presently true:

  • Sanders has dramatically higher favorable ratings than Clinton, despite months of attacks from his Democratic opponent and Trump and GOP super-PACs generally laying off both Sanders and Clinton;
  • Sanders beats Donald Trump nationally by much more than does Clinton (12 points, as opposed to 6 for Clinton, in an average of all national polls);
  • Sanders beats Donald Trump in every battleground state by more than does Clinton; and
  • Sanders beats Trump by 22 points among independents, while Clinton loses independents to Trump by 2 points.

As we sit here today, the Clinton-Trump match-up in the three biggest battleground states — Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, the loss of all three of which would lose the Democrats the general election — is a dead heat.

Source: Bernie Sanders Could Still Win the Democratic Nomination — No, Seriously

I do not have a lot of confidence in Sanders becoming the Democratic nominee. I also don’t have a lot of confidence in Clinton being able to beat Trump in the general election. It seems that the DNC has signed a suicide pact with Clinton.

Trump The Moderate?

This article asks a great question:

If Trump continues tacking towards the economic center, how will Clinton react to distinguish herself? Especially if she’s trying to please both her party’s urban professional vote, while trying to woo anti-Trump Republican voters at the same time?

Source: Why Clinton vs. Trump could bring out Democrats’ worst instincts on economics

Trump has been all over the place with his positions in the primaries and hasn’t been afraid to contradict himself. If he beats Clinton back to the center where does she go to differentiate her policy from his?

Of course she could just forget all of that and run on the “I’m not Trump” platform.

Cycling Means Business

Jason Walker, a Chattanooga radio personality,  vented his frustration with people riding bicycles in the street and with Chattanooga investing in bicycle infrastructure specifically along Frazier Avenue in this Facebook post.  He immediately had a whole host of his followers agreeing with him and going beyond in his comments.

A lot of people in the comments seem to have a huge misunderstanding of the economics of bicycling. If you add bicycle infrastructure to an area, even at the expense of parking spaces for cars, the businesses along the route experience an increase in sales.

Many critics argue that sacrificing on-street parking in order to build bike lanes would hurt local businesses.  However, several studies, including a 2009 study by the Clean Air Partnership in Toronto, show that shoppers who walk or cycle to a business are more likely to return and spend more money in the area than people who drive there.  The Toronto study predicted that instead of harming local businesses, bike lanes would increase commercial activity on the street.[ix]

Source: Bikeonomics: The Economics of Riding Your Bike | lasesana

This is exactly the opposite of effect of what people who view cars as the only legitimate means of transportation expect because they are in cars. People on bicycles see more of the businesses on their route and have less of a problem finding places to park so they are more likely to stop and shop along their way.

From an economic standpoint businesses win when bicycling infrastructure is added to their community.

California Raising Smoking Age to 21 – The New York Times

I open up the paper this morning and I see this:

LOS ANGELES — California will become the second state in the nation to raise the smoking age to 21 and will begin regulating electronic cigarettes like other tobacco products under legislation signed by Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday.

Source: California Raising Smoking Age to 21 – The New York Times

I guess California can’t trust its eighteen year olds to decide for themselves whether or not to smoke just like they can’t trust them to drink alcohol. They need another three years of maturing before they can make those types of decisions for themselves.

Which has me wondering why eighteen year olds can be trusted to vote, or join the military. How can we trust them with their own credit accounts? We allow them to put cars and houses in their names and accept the liability that ownership of those entails but we won’t allow them to drink or smoke.

Why is that?

Seems Like She’s Apologizing All Of The Time

People in West Virginia are angry with Sec. Clinton. Why? Those people are coal miners and while discussing plans to create jobs in the renewable energy industry during a CNN town hall in March, Clinton said, “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.”

Yeah, if I’m a coal miner that’s the way to get my vote, tell me you are going to put me out of business. West Virginia, and all of Appalachia is an area that put Bill Clinton in the White House and

“What I said was totally out of context from what I meant because I have been talking about helping coal country for a very long time,” Clinton said, according to NBC News. “What I was saying is that the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs. That’s what I meant to say.”

Source: Clinton Apologizes To West Virginia Voter For Comments On Coal Country

Yeah, there isn’t much of a way taking “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business” out of context.

Now to be fair, I agree with her about putting coal companies out of business and miners out of work until they can be retrained as something else. Her problem is in the way she said it.

And that’s one of the many problems I have with her, she says stuff the wrong way all the time and finds herself having to apologize for her misstatements. In this case it wasn’t a misstatement, she said what she meant. It would have been nice if she had thought about how coal miners, many of them living in impoverished areas with little else paying a living wage.

 

Edge.org

Dan pointed me to this article which got me thinking about automation and what it does to jobs. Basically, it destroys them, eating at them from the bottom (unskilled) to the top (skilled) and it will eventually put us all out of “work”.

What brings me to that conclusion is this statement:

In short, what today’s flexible software is threatening is to “free” us from the drudgery of all repetitive tasks rather than those of lowest value, pushing us away from expertise (A) which we know how to impart, toward ingenious Rube Goldberg like opportunities (B) unsupported by any proven educational model. This shift in emphasis from jobs to opportunities is great news for a tiny number of creatives of today, but deeply troubling for a majority who depend on stable and cyclical work to feed families.

Source: Edge.org

Regardless of how skilled, a job is nothing more than a series of repetitive tasks. If you buy into the authors views repetitive tasks will be taken over by automation regardless of the degree of skilled required. What that leaves us with will be a series of opportunities we either must seize or we will wither away into poverty.

If you are an opportunist this is not a bad thing. You go about life engaged in your passion and seize opportunities as they arise for which you are richly rewarded.

Unfortunately, most of us are not opportunist.

Most of us keep our nose to the grindstone, whittling away at repetitive tasks, creating consumer goods that people will consume with the money they make keeping their nose to the grindstone at their repetitive tasks.

The End of Ownership.

Is the era of IoT bringing an end to the concept of ownership? Are we just buying intentionally temporary hardware? It feels like it. I own a Commodore 64 that still works.

Source: The time that Tony Fadell sold me a container of hummus. — Medium

Yes. Yes, it is, actually.

And this isn’t just with home automation equipment, it extends to your phone, your tablet, your computer and even your car. It goes to books, music and movies. Everything you have that depends on the cloud will only last as long as the supporting company sees a business benefit for them to continue the service.

Hat tip to Dan.

Hillary Clinton doesn’t like Bernie Sanders’ tone

Okay, I’m reading this:

Hillary Clinton’s team insinuated Monday she would decline another debate with rival Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders unless he changed his “tone.” Mrs. Clinton’s campaign is worried the senator has been too negative in recent weeks and is “talking about running harsher negatives now.”

Source: Hillary Clinton threatens no more debates unless Bernie Sanders changes tone – Washington Times

And thinking this is just the primaries and Sen. Sanders has only been attacking her on the issues. I think that’s fair play. Does she think she will get a more positive tone from Donald Trump should she get the Democratic nomination? Sen. Sanders has been the perfect gentleman.