It’s probably right but I don’t think for the reason they think.
The reason a Democrat will win isn’t about polling or personalities, it’s about economics, says Moody’s. The economy is the top issue in just about every election. When the economy is doing well, the party currently in office usually wins again. When the economy is tanking, Americans vote for change.
The economy is doing very well but the American middle class isn’t. It doesn’t matter how well our economy is doing in reality when the people can be convinced that it is awful.